Frank Zhang张琳

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I have listed a new property at 461-467 Trans Canada HWY in Duncan.
Huge income &Superb location! Nearly 10,000 Sqft office/retail building on big, half acre lot at Down Town core in Duncan beside Trans Canada Highway.Located on the ever thriving Vancouver Island, this log house gets $12,000 monthly income from 6,525 sqft on the main floor, 3,280 sqft on the upper floor and spacious 38 stall parking lot.Come grab it and start seeing cash flow in!
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BC 自由党已经表态了:不希望房价上涨太快。可以解读为,可以缓慢上涨,可以持平。其实,他们已经排除了希望房价下跌的希望。因为已经多次表示,要保护省民的财富。

我个人认为,今后几个月,大温房价上涨的可能性相当大。

1.银行利率仍然很低。加拿大央行刚刚决定,维持隔夜拆借利率不变。现在世界各地的经济似乎都带死不活的,加拿大以资源出口为导向的经济,未来几个月也好不到那儿去。年底以前央行不被迫降息就不错了。

2.房市的供应,不会在未来几个月发生显著的改变。即便BC 省政府出台促进房屋兴建的政策,也需要到一两年以后才能见效。

3.需求减少有限。根据BC 省的统计,外国人只占买房人口的10%左右。也就是说,从8月2号开始执行的15%额外附加税,充其量只能减少10%左右的需求。另外的90%还是要买房的。

那10%左右的需求也没有完全减少:外国人可以到BC省的其他地方或者其他省份去买房,可以躲开这15%的税收。可是别忘了,那些地方的卖主,会有不少加拿大公民或常驻居民。他们卖了房子以后,完全可以把钱拿到大温地区来买房啊,他们不用付那15%的过户费。

因此我认为,今年九,十月份是买房的好时机。否则,等到房市又涨起来,就又增加了买房成本。一家之言,仅供参考。

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以前说过,省长的15%税玩的高妙,今天继续。
 
选择7有25号仓促出台这样的政策,我认为省长背后有高人, 已经看到了那时成交量其实已经在调整,加上季节因素,此时出台这个政策显得效果最好。能够最大幅度地收获那些渴望房价下跌的省民的选票。顺便抓些外国人的钞票。
 
六月初, 省政府开始收集外国人买房的统计信息,原来的说法是要六个月左右的数据。结果不到两个月就颁布了这一法令,可见她们认为这是最佳时间点。否则,再往后拖延几个月,市场的走向如果不确定怎么办?如果出台同样的15%政策,市场不降反升,那样的政策就毫无效果了。
 
未来的几个月,关于这个法令持续发酵的新闻仍会不绝于耳。希望房价下跌的省民喜欢看,省长和自由党也会乐观其成。
 
7月25号出台政策还有一个很大的好处。就是对来年的物业评估影响最小。BC 评估署一般是根据七月前后的销售情况来评估物业价值。
 
这个法令出台以前,温市长几次发声,向省府叫板,要开征空置税。7月25号以后比较平静了。
 
值得提醒的是,省长以前也多次表态, 不会损害物业拥有者的财产价值。BC省的选民中,拥有物业的占很大比例。因此,省长不会把以前的立场当成儿戏。如果以为这15%是要打压房价,那就错了。省市政府从没有人提过要打压房价。他们经常提的是提高住房可负担性,就是能让更多人能够住在大温地区,这和让房价下降是两码事儿。例如可多盖一些公寓类住房,也能缓解住房紧张局面。
 
如果省长背后的高人能为省长指出了出台15%法令的最佳时机,那么,他也应该确确实实预测到这一措施不会降低房价,起码在明年春天省选以前不会。这样,省长和BC 自由党也会获得屋主的拥护。
 
这样看来,明年春天的选举,其实大局已定了。
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八月地产局权威统计出台,大温地区成交量下跌26%,房价基本持平。这一结果不出预料。我在八月下旬的时候,做过一个粗略统计会有30%左右。

月中,曾有人叫嚷大跌90%以上的。 对这荒唐之言,我只能呵呵。在本地生活多年,感觉不少西人已经中了东邪西毒九阴白骨掌,加上近年互联网,社交网站对人类大脑的侵蚀,有些人的智力水平在零上还是零下,确实需要打个问号了。

26%中应该包括大约10%左右的外国买家。我认为,绝大多数原来要在大温地区置业的外国人会撤出这个市场,起码暂时会撤出。他们很多人的钱也是辛辛苦苦打工,经商,省吃俭用积攒而来。15%的税对他们而言是一个很大的负担。同时,这个额外的过户费也涉嫌歧视外国人,让人感觉难以接受。

另外的16%左右,应该是本地持观望态度的人-对房市犹豫。

值得注意的是,本地仍有超过80%的人对市场是乐观的--他们选择了买房!

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As expected-不出所料

 

Metro Vancouver home sales return to typical August levels

VANCOUVER, BC – September 2, 2016 – For the second straight month, home buyer demand in Metro Vancouver* moved off of the record-breaking pace seen earlier this year and returned to more typical levels.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Metro Vancouver totalled 2,489 in August 2016, a decline of 26 per cent compared to the 3,362 sales in August 2015; 10.2 per cent less than the 2,771 sales in August 2014; and one per cent less than the 2,514 sales in August 2013. August 2016 sales also represent a 22.8 per cent decline compared to last month’s sales.

From a historical perspective, last month’s sales were 3.5 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month.

“The record-breaking sales we saw earlier this year were replaced by more historically normal activity throughout July and August,” Dan Morrison, REBGV president said. "Sales have been trending downward in Metro Vancouver for a few months. The new foreign buyer tax appears to have added to this trend by reducing foreign buyer activity and causing some uncertainty amongst local home buyers and sellers.

“It’ll take some months before we can really understand the impact of the new tax. We'll be interested to see the government's next round of foreign buyer data."

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 4,293 in August 2016. This represents an increase of 0.3 per cent compared to the 4,281 units listed in August 2015 and an 18.1 per cent decrease compared to July 2016 when 5,241 properties were listed.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver is 8,506, a 21.9 per cent decline compared to August 2015 (10,897) and a 1.9 per cent increase from July 2016 (8,351).

The sales-to-active listings ratio for August 2016 is 29.3 per cent. This is indicative of a seller’s market.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches the 20 to 22 per cent range in a particular community for a sustained period.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $933,100. This represents a 31.4 per cent increase compared to August 2015 and a 4.9 per cent increase over the last three months.

“In aggregate, we continue to see an imbalance between supply and demand in most communities. However, we’re also seeing fewer detached sales in the highest price points and fewer detached home sales relative to all residential sales,” Morrison said. “This is causing average sale prices to show a decline in recent months, while benchmark home prices remain virtually unchanged from July.”

The average price is the simplest home price measure to explain but is not the most accurate since it may be skewed by the mix of properties. More high-end or low-end sales will skew the number up or down. Based on the Consumer Price Index, MLS HPI® benchmark prices are a more reliable and stable indicator of typical home prices across regions over time.

Sales of detached properties in August 2016 reached 715, a decrease of 44.6 per cent from the 1,290 detached sales recorded in August 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 35.8 per cent from August 2015 to $1,577,300. This represents a 4.2 per cent increase over the last three months.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,343 in August 2016, a decrease of 10.1 per cent compared to the 1,494 sales in August 2015.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 26.9 per cent from August 2015 to $514,300. This represents a 6.1 per cent increase over the last three months.

Attached property sales in August 2016 totalled 431, a decrease of 25.4 per cent compared to the 578 sales in August 2015. The benchmark price of an attached home increased 31.1 per cent from August 2015 to $677,600. This represents a 7.1 per cent increase over the last three months. 

Click here for the August 2016 stats package

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August's sale will be low, of course and as expected. We may even see a bit of price weakness for this month.

 

This is in part because of the 15% additional Property Transfer Tax enacted by BC government. This new and significant tax will certainly drive away quite a number of foreign buyers. Those who believe that foreign buyers would not care about the added expense are just ignorant. As the statistics suggests, this 10% of purchasers should be absent from the market in August.

 

The Tax should also have had a stunning effect for other people who are not subject to additional cost but are likely scared and have a short expectation.

 

August has traditionlly been vacation season and usually sees low sales volumn.

 

Overall, I wouldn't feel surprised if sales volume turns out significant smaller.

 

On the other hand, the big picture has not changed. Housing supply remains inadequet, interest rate at historic low and may get reduced even further because of Canada's overall economic conditions.

 

In another word, Vancouver's housing market will be picking up soon after the market breathes  away the tax smells.

 

I feel the next 1-2 months would make the best buying window.

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