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以前说过,省长的15%税玩的高妙,今天继续。
 
选择7有25号仓促出台这样的政策,我认为省长背后有高人, 已经看到了那时成交量其实已经在调整,加上季节因素,此时出台这个政策显得效果最好。能够最大幅度地收获那些渴望房价下跌的省民的选票。顺便抓些外国人的钞票。
 
六月初, 省政府开始收集外国人买房的统计信息,原来的说法是要六个月左右的数据。结果不到两个月就颁布了这一法令,可见她们认为这是最佳时间点。否则,再往后拖延几个月,市场的走向如果不确定怎么办?如果出台同样的15%政策,市场不降反升,那样的政策就毫无效果了。
 
未来的几个月,关于这个法令持续发酵的新闻仍会不绝于耳。希望房价下跌的省民喜欢看,省长和自由党也会乐观其成。
 
7月25号出台政策还有一个很大的好处。就是对来年的物业评估影响最小。BC 评估署一般是根据七月前后的销售情况来评估物业价值。
 
这个法令出台以前,温市长几次发声,向省府叫板,要开征空置税。7月25号以后比较平静了。
 
值得提醒的是,省长以前也多次表态, 不会损害物业拥有者的财产价值。BC省的选民中,拥有物业的占很大比例。因此,省长不会把以前的立场当成儿戏。如果以为这15%是要打压房价,那就错了。省市政府从没有人提过要打压房价。他们经常提的是提高住房可负担性,就是能让更多人能够住在大温地区,这和让房价下降是两码事儿。例如可多盖一些公寓类住房,也能缓解住房紧张局面。
 
如果省长背后的高人能为省长指出了出台15%法令的最佳时机,那么,他也应该确确实实预测到这一措施不会降低房价,起码在明年春天省选以前不会。这样,省长和BC 自由党也会获得屋主的拥护。
 
这样看来,明年春天的选举,其实大局已定了。
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八月地产局权威统计出台,大温地区成交量下跌26%,房价基本持平。这一结果不出预料。我在八月下旬的时候,做过一个粗略统计会有30%左右。

月中,曾有人叫嚷大跌90%以上的。 对这荒唐之言,我只能呵呵。在本地生活多年,感觉不少西人已经中了东邪西毒九阴白骨掌,加上近年互联网,社交网站对人类大脑的侵蚀,有些人的智力水平在零上还是零下,确实需要打个问号了。

26%中应该包括大约10%左右的外国买家。我认为,绝大多数原来要在大温地区置业的外国人会撤出这个市场,起码暂时会撤出。他们很多人的钱也是辛辛苦苦打工,经商,省吃俭用积攒而来。15%的税对他们而言是一个很大的负担。同时,这个额外的过户费也涉嫌歧视外国人,让人感觉难以接受。

另外的16%左右,应该是本地持观望态度的人-对房市犹豫。

值得注意的是,本地仍有超过80%的人对市场是乐观的--他们选择了买房!

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As expected-不出所料

 

Metro Vancouver home sales return to typical August levels

VANCOUVER, BC – September 2, 2016 – For the second straight month, home buyer demand in Metro Vancouver* moved off of the record-breaking pace seen earlier this year and returned to more typical levels.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Metro Vancouver totalled 2,489 in August 2016, a decline of 26 per cent compared to the 3,362 sales in August 2015; 10.2 per cent less than the 2,771 sales in August 2014; and one per cent less than the 2,514 sales in August 2013. August 2016 sales also represent a 22.8 per cent decline compared to last month’s sales.

From a historical perspective, last month’s sales were 3.5 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month.

“The record-breaking sales we saw earlier this year were replaced by more historically normal activity throughout July and August,” Dan Morrison, REBGV president said. "Sales have been trending downward in Metro Vancouver for a few months. The new foreign buyer tax appears to have added to this trend by reducing foreign buyer activity and causing some uncertainty amongst local home buyers and sellers.

“It’ll take some months before we can really understand the impact of the new tax. We'll be interested to see the government's next round of foreign buyer data."

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 4,293 in August 2016. This represents an increase of 0.3 per cent compared to the 4,281 units listed in August 2015 and an 18.1 per cent decrease compared to July 2016 when 5,241 properties were listed.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver is 8,506, a 21.9 per cent decline compared to August 2015 (10,897) and a 1.9 per cent increase from July 2016 (8,351).

The sales-to-active listings ratio for August 2016 is 29.3 per cent. This is indicative of a seller’s market.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches the 20 to 22 per cent range in a particular community for a sustained period.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $933,100. This represents a 31.4 per cent increase compared to August 2015 and a 4.9 per cent increase over the last three months.

“In aggregate, we continue to see an imbalance between supply and demand in most communities. However, we’re also seeing fewer detached sales in the highest price points and fewer detached home sales relative to all residential sales,” Morrison said. “This is causing average sale prices to show a decline in recent months, while benchmark home prices remain virtually unchanged from July.”

The average price is the simplest home price measure to explain but is not the most accurate since it may be skewed by the mix of properties. More high-end or low-end sales will skew the number up or down. Based on the Consumer Price Index, MLS HPI® benchmark prices are a more reliable and stable indicator of typical home prices across regions over time.

Sales of detached properties in August 2016 reached 715, a decrease of 44.6 per cent from the 1,290 detached sales recorded in August 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 35.8 per cent from August 2015 to $1,577,300. This represents a 4.2 per cent increase over the last three months.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,343 in August 2016, a decrease of 10.1 per cent compared to the 1,494 sales in August 2015.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 26.9 per cent from August 2015 to $514,300. This represents a 6.1 per cent increase over the last three months.

Attached property sales in August 2016 totalled 431, a decrease of 25.4 per cent compared to the 578 sales in August 2015. The benchmark price of an attached home increased 31.1 per cent from August 2015 to $677,600. This represents a 7.1 per cent increase over the last three months. 

Click here for the August 2016 stats package

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{导语}置业买房,市场形势固然是需要考虑的因素之中。它帮我们在定价、出价、挑选物业的类型、位置等方面提供重要信息。但有时候过于跟风所谓的“大形势”,让充斥在耳边的信息扰乱原本的计划与思路,其实并没有好处。房子不一定要买最好的,合适你的就可以!但有很多人不明白这些道理,在市场中踌躇犹豫着错过很多机会。您,可千万不要成为以下这六类永远买不到房的“踌躇一族”哦。

 

温哥华的房价在整个加拿大一直是数一数二的,让不少工薪阶层百姓““为伊消得人憔悴”,可出于不断到来的移民买房、本地民众换房的刚性需求,温哥华的房市基本都是呈骄傲的坚挺姿态,直到最近几个月……大温地区近几个月来楼市遇冷,主要体现在成交量的“缩水”上。有人担心着楼市变差而迟迟观望,怕一出手日后无法得到回报;有人期待着房价会继续下跌;一边是各种对楼市的分析预测,另一边房价似乎并没有下降太多。。

 

“乱花渐醉迷人眼”,很多购房者看不懂、猜不透,更加乱了阵脚。究竟是抓住目前的“买房市场”及时出手,还是再等一等,等到房价再降?其实,无论市场走向如何,房价是升是降,如果没有正确的心态,永远都买不到房。机会,是不等人的。

 

1. 永远觉得房价还会跌

“在等一下,应该还有再跌的可能吧。”有些人天天就在盼望着房价会再降,便宜一点儿是一点。而那些永远都在等待房价跌到谷底的人,就更像是期待奇迹会发生的梦中人!这些人就跟炒股票一样,天天在等抄底,可是又有几个能知道谷底在哪呢?卖者和买者对价格的期望显然不同,把时间浪费在无谓的等待上,还不如抓住时机好好把握。

 

2.总慢人一拍

有些人倒不是这么在乎价格,他们只是觉得要花这么一笔不小的钱,当然就要慎重选择。选房看房都很积极,但一到做决定的关键时刻,纠结心态又出现了,似乎总觉得什么地方还不太满意磨磨唧唧,当断不断,犹犹豫豫……待到终于下定决心要买的时候,那套原本心仪的房子早就成了别人的囊中之物了。等机会没了再懊悔,失去之后方知珍惜,说的就是这类朋友。

 

3、总是不相信开发商和经纪

“开发商和经纪,都是要为自己赚钱的。所以他们的话,不能都信。”总是对开发商和经纪存有戒心、怀疑他们只想从别人身上赚取利益而无视客户真正需求的人,在生活中的其他方面,也基本都是以自我为中心的。“宁可自己负天下人,不能天下人负我!”---这也许是他们内心的真实写照。世界上没有纯为人民服务的开发商,也没有完全不考虑利益的经纪,毕竟大家都是做生意要吃饭的。但做生意也讲究诚信,大部分能坚持多年、并在市场上取得不错口碑的地产开发商与地产经纪,都是凭良心做事,付出的努力、投入和辛劳换来应得的利益,这样的钱他们赚得安心也舒心,而客户在获得满意的服务时,当然也很乐意给予他们回报。永远都对开发商和经纪存有戒心的人,不但买不到房,做其他事情恐怕也都会很累吧。

 

4、永远只看而不买

总是看而不买的人,不是不想买,而是抱着“多看几套好比较”的心态,结果一看就不可收拾了。房子总是越建越好,不同的物业也都会有各自的亮点和特色,如果昨天看的这套好,今天看得这间也不错,明天预约的那套似乎也值得一去……无尽的比较中,时间飞逝,殊不知房价在上升,市场在变化,好不容易看好了一间,一问价格傻了眼:“怎么和我当初看的价格相差这么多?”

 

5、过度相信专家的话

无论市场是好是差,专家们总能发表出相应看法,要不然他们怎能称得上是专家呢?借鉴他们的专业知识与建议,从而让自己的投资决定更理性、更有保障,这样的做法当然不错。可是,也有一些非正式“专家”,表面为投资者指点迷津,天天喊房价要跌,或是劝人世道不好不要出手,自己却趁着好机会买了好几套物业。如果房价靠那些整天就知道吹牛皮的“专家”能跌下来,你相信吗?专家的意见也需要分拣挑选,盲目地跟风追随,哪天发现自己被忽悠了为时已晚。而成功的人,都是有理智+有主见的少数派。

 

6.梦想十全十美的房子

买房是大事,我们也提倡谨慎选择。花这么大笔钱,总要把它们用在刀刃上的心态,我们也充分理解。不过,你见过十全十美的房子吗?也许只能等在看了N套房子后,终于觉得累了困了,才明白房子原来是不能没有缺点的。好好分析一下你的个人情况,看房子的面积大小、地理位置、价格、周围环境、升值潜力等因素哪个对你来说是最重要的。有得必有失,会舍才有得,只要是适合自己的,所有的小瑕疵都可以忽略不计。“十全十美”这个标准,还不是您自己说了算?

 

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